F1 season predictions: Australian drought to be broken, both championships wide open, Doohan’s chances of survival

It’s been three months since we last saw F1 cars race in anger for glory and this weekend we’re about to finally return to racing as the 2025 F1 season gets underway in Melbourne.

It’s the first time since 2019 that Albert Park will host the season opener (not including the cancelled 2020 race) and every F1 fan is calculating their thoughts and tabulating their predictions for both the opening race and the season as a whole, including us here at The Roar.

Writers Ben Waterworth, Jawad Yaqub and Oliver van Bronswijk put their collective heads together to give their pre-season predictions and bring a spicy bit of battle to the table across the 2025 season.

For each correct prediction, a point will be awarded at the end of the season, with ultimate prediction glory going to the writer who gets the most points.

Ready to see how this will play out? Let’s get to the predictions.

Drivers’ World Champion

Ben: This is shaping up to be the most open race for the Drivers’ Championship in recent memory, which makes it all the more difficult to predict. On paper there are four easy candidates for me: Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, with possibly Oscar Piastri and George Russell thrown in for good measure.

But who will come out on top? I’m going out on a limb here and not only doing this with my head but also my heart and saying 2025 will be the year of Ferrari and Charles Leclerc will break through for his first World Championship.

I think it’ll be tight and very close and go down to the final race of the season, but I feel now is the time for Leclerc to come out on top. He exercised the Monaco GP demons last year and drove a much more consistent season than in the past, and I think that will bode well for him in 2025.

Jawad: 2012 was the last time that we sat at the opening round of the season (aptly in Melbourne) thinking that a McLaren driver could be world champion this year. Back then, following his barnstorming Australian Grand Prix win, I had my eggs in the basket of Jenson Button and now on the eve of the season commencing – it’s difficult to go past Lando Norris.

His time has come; to either show he truly is as great as his credentials say, or to accept he can’t sustain a title challenge. Lando’s drive in Abu Dhabi last year was ominous and all my criticisms aside from 2024 – I do hope that ruthless intent present from the outset to power him through to a maiden title.

Oliver: What a difference 12 months makes. Red Bull is no longer the dominant force in Formula 1 and the potential candidates for world champion are extensive. I believe 2025 will see a first-time champion be crowned. The fairytale of Oscar Piastri still seems a bit too far-fetched this time around and Lewis Hamilton may not be able to adapt as smoothly to Ferrari as most believe.

It’s a question between Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris in the fight for the top. McLaren for at least the start of the season seems to have an unmatched race pace and after a year of adjustment, I’m betting Lando Norris to be the world champion come season’s end.

Constructors’ World Champion

Ben: Similar to the Drivers’, I think the Constructors’ will be extremely tight. Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes are all in the hunt, and I feel all four teams will win races in 2025.

To me there are only two teams though that have consistent enough drivers to fully fight for the Championship and that is McLaren and Ferrari and just like I’m going head and heart in the Drivers’, I’m doing the same in the Constructors’ and predicting Ferrari will breakthrough for their first Championship since 2008.

Jawad: McLaren capitalised strongly off the back of Max Verstappen effectively carrying Red Bull last year, but also developing their car into a world beater as the season progressed last year. I believe with the best car from the outset, they’re going to be a difficult force to withstand in the constructor’s battle – as well as having still one of the strongest driver line-ups.

Oliver: Continuing from their battle up to Abu Dhabi last year, McLaren and Ferrari both stand out to me as the clear favourites for the title. Red Bull seemingly have a narrow window for their drivers and Mercedes will need to expect some growing pains with rookie Kimi Antonelli.

Flip a coin and either way it lands there is credibility. I’m favouring McLaren over Ferrari because I believe we haven’t seen the complete version of either Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri and the ceiling they can reach will make them unsurpassable.

Constructors’ Championship order

Ben: Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull, Mercedes, Williams, Alpine, Aston Martin, Haas, Racing Bulls, Kick Sauber

Jawad: McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes, Red Bull, Williams, Racing Bulls, Alpine, Aston Martin, Haas, Kick Sauber

Oliver: McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes, Williams, Alpine, Haas, Aston Martin, Racing Bulls, Sauber

Teammate battle winners

Ben: Piastri (McLaren), Leclerc (Ferrari), Verstappen (Red Bull), Russell (Mercedes), Alonso (Aston Martin), Gasly (Alpine), Bearman (Haas), Tsunoda (Racing Bulls), Sainz (Williams), Hulkenberg (Kick Sauber)

Jawad: Norris (McLaren), Leclerc (Ferrari), Verstappen (Red Bull), Antonelli (Mercedes), Alonso (Aston Martin), Gasly (Alpine), Bearman (Haas), Tsunoda (Racing Bulls), Sainz (Williams), Hulkenberg (Kick Sauber)

Oliver: Norris (McLaren), Leclerc (Ferrari), Verstappen (Red Bull), Russell (Mercedes), Alonso (Aston Martin), Gasly (Alpine), Bearman (Haas), Tsunoda (Racing Bulls), Sainz (Williams), Hulkenberg (Kick Sauber)

Australian Grand Prix Winner

Ben: I’m torn here and want it on the record that I’m flipping a coin between two romantic storylines that not only do I both want, but I’m sure every F1 fan would want. That is either Lewis Hamilton winning on his Ferrari debut or Oscar Piastri winning his home race.

I have a gut feeling that Lewis Hamilton can do exactly what Nigel Mansell, Kimi Raikkonen and Fernando Alonso did and win on their Ferrari debut with all the hype that surrounded their move to Maranello. I also feel it would be written in the stars for that to happen and give him and the Scuderia all the hope heading into the new season for Championship success.

But I don’t know why, but I’m leaning towards Oscar coming home with the goods in Melbourne and finally giving Aussie F1 fans that much desired success at home that they have been so starved of since Australia appeared as an official World Championship race in 1985.

It has to happen eventually, right? Right? I think so.

That’s my prediction. Oscar Piastri will soak up the pressure and deliver Australia their first home winner of the Australian Grand Prix since Alan Jones won the non-championship race at Calder Park in 1980.

Jawad: Ferrari and Albert Park have a longstanding love affair, being the most successful constructor on Australian soil with 14 wins ahead of McLaren’s 12. While for that reason and the tendency for the Australian Grand Prix to offer a surprise result, I want to say Lewis Hamilton will win on his Ferrari debut – I also can’t go past Melbourne-born Oscar Piastri to finally break the curse of an Aussie winning their home race.

Oliver: It’s time to believe. Daniel Ricciardo, Mark Webber and Oscar Piastri all have a best result of fourth at the Australian Grand Prix. McLaren has what could be the fastest car and I’m not only tipping that Oscar Piastri will become the first Australian to podium (and keep that result) but that he will be the first Australian to win his home race.

The motivation will be there and as long as he qualifies towards the front there’s a chance for memories to be made. It’s time to picture Albert Park celebrating as one of our own stands aloft and raises the Sir Jack Brabham Trophy.

Who will get the 2026 Red Bull seat?

Ben: This is a tricky one, as I firmly believe that two seats could be up for grabs in 2026. Something tells me Verstappen will get extra frustrated this year and really float a move elsewhere. While Mercedes is a clear choice, it wouldn’t surprise me if a bombshell swap happened between him and Norris to see both at their respective teams.

But with that amazing (and probably very wrong) prediction aside, I’m actually going to play it safe and say Liam Lawson will hold on to it. I think he will have a similar season to Sergio Perez when he made his Red Bull debut in 2021. A safe and solid year that may deliver a win or two and a few podiums and do enough for him to retain it for at least one more year.

Jawad: Liam Lawson will have done enough to keep his seat going into 2026, as Red Bull don’t quite have enough drivers in their pool ready to make that jump (sorry Yuki Tsunoda as much as I love you). But if Verstappen decides to bail – then all bets are off.

Oliver: I have faith in Liam Lawson and believe he is a great talent. He deserved a better introduction to Formula 1 than what he’s got, but now Red Bull potentially aren’t at the forefront, Christian Horner needs to be patient.

Lawson shouldn’t be expected to beat Max Verstappen unless the four-time champion has an off weekend. Yuki Tsunoda lies in the wings but he should be looking to do a Carlos Sainz and move away from the Red Bull family. At the bare minimum, Lawson should be given 2025 and 2026 to show his worth.

Who will get the 2026 Cadillac seats?

Ben: This to me is the most fun question of all because the prospect of a brand new team creates so many possibilities. Firstly, it’s great to get a new team on the grid, and I hope this opens the doors for another in the future to expand the grid even further.

I do think, though, that with a new team you need to mix experience with youth, similar to what the last new team Haas did in 2016 when they hired Romain Grosjean alongside Esteban Gutierrez.

So with that in mind, I’m predicting Valtteri Bottas will get the nod as the experienced driver, and he will partner Colton Herta. The American is a superstar in the Indy Car world and having him drive for an iconic American team will help sell the project even more.

Jawad: While not quite being a bonafide IndyCar fan and more of a flâneur, it would be fantastic to finally see one of their modern generation talents cross over to F1. And no, as much as I adore Scott McLaughlin, it would be more likely Colton Herta that would make the switch.

It would make sense too, for a famous American marque such as Cadillac to have an American driver. Alongside him, the thing that any new team will value would be experience, and that’s where 281-Grand Prix veteran Sergio Perez would fill that requirement. It won’t hurt to have his plethora of sponsorships handy as well.

Oliver: Cadillac will enter in 2026 with a very favourable pool of drivers to select their inaugural lineup. In typical American fashion, they will select one of their own and no better prospect exists than Colton Herta. Whilst he doesn’t have the valid super licence points yet, I believe he will end up on the grid in 2026.

Two rookies is never an ideal situation, so I’ll select a veteran of the sport, and that is between Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas. The Daniel Ricciardo VCARB experiment failed so I’ll select Bottas as I believe his talent far outweighed what Sauber could do last season.

Which driver will get replaced first in 2025?

Ben: It pains me to say it but it has to be Jack Doohan. There is absolutely no way in hell that Alpine have hired Franco Colapinto to simply have him sit on the sidelines all year and wait for 2026. That’s not how Alpine works. Sadly for our Jack, he seemingly has the writing on the wall before the season even begins. I do hope I’m wrong.

I really, really do and want Jack to come out and show everyone how wrong they are about him. But sadly I can’t see any other storyline for him in 2025. I will go out on a limb and say he survives a bit longer than people think, but I think he’ll be out by round 11 in Austria.

Jawad: With great pain, it is difficult to go beyond Jack Doohan. While Alpine team principal Oliver Oakes has been more supportive to the Aussie publicly, as well as putting the onus on performance ultimately – there is that looming threat of the team’s advisor in Flavio Briatore.

The astute former team principal has made his intentions clear, with the multimillion-dollar signing of Argentinian hotshot Franco Colapinto as a reserve and test driver. But really, why would the 21-year old sidestep from the same role at Williams to Alpine – if there wasn’t the caveat of a race seat attached?

Oliver: The obvious choice is Jack Doohan, which hurts to say as he hasn’t even shown a reason for dismissal. Franco Colapinto is no doubt talented but was crash-prone towards the end of his Williams stint.

I don’t believe Doohan will be replaced before the end of the season, so if I were to put anyone else under pressure, it would be Isack Hadjar. The Racing Bulls driver was promoted last minute with minimal preparation.

If Arvid Lindblad starts his F2 season on fire, I wouldn’t be surprised at a classic Helmut Marko change. However, it’s a remote possibility so as a result I can’t see anyone falling off the grid before we complete the 2025 season.

Bold prediction for the season

Ben: I mean read above and take your pick. I think me saying Piastri will win in Melbourne or that there is potential for Verstappen and Norris to swap seats in 2026 are pretty bold predictions.

But I’ll scale those back and make a different one and say that we will see a team outside of Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull or Mercedes win a race. I think this will happen in a chaotic race with changeable conditions and a lot of incidents, but a non-front running team will somehow get a victory in 2025.

Who? I’m not bold enough to say (fingers crossed for Lance), but that’s my bold prediction for this season.

Jawad: Much to Ben’s dismay, but my bold prediction unfortunately involves Lance Stroll being collateral damage in the headline of the year; Verstappen leaves Red Bull to join Aston Martin.

Yes, while the heart of Lawrence Stroll’s significant investment in the team formerly known as Force India was to one day see his scion as world champion – the dangling carrot that is the reigning world champion will be too hard to resist.

They’ve been putting together a super-team; with Adrian Newey on board, Andy Cowell at the helm and ex-Ferrari man Enrico Cardile yet to arrive. As well as getting the Honda power in 2026. All things that will be enough to court Verstappen away from Red Bull.

Oliver: This year feels like something special for Williams Racing. James Vowles has got the team moving forward efficiently and finally streamlining the team towards a modern F1 team.

With Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon as a formidable lineup, I predict that Williams will not only finish best of the rest but also get on the podium at least twice this season. This could be the start of making the jump back to the front of the grid for Williams and that would be a story worth watching.

What do you think of our predictions? How do you think some of these will play out across the year? Let us know your thoughts below.

This article was originally written for The Roar. You can read the published version here